If you don’t want to know who will win the Academy Awards on Sunday, read no further.
My favorite oddsmaker, Danny Sheridan, has given me his line, and he is almost never wrong.
“I keep seeing ABC TV ads saying this is the closest Oscar race in years, but that’s not the case, except supporting actress,” Sheridan told me.
“12 Years a Slave” is a 1-4 favorite to win Best Picture, with “Gravity” a 3-1 underdog, and “American Hustle” and “Dallas Buyers Club” at even longer odds.
“ ‘Slave’ has been the favorite since it opened in October, but ‘Gravity’ is getting a lot of votes due to its groundbreaking technology — four years to make,” said Sheridan, who polled Oscar voters.
“Gravity” helmer Alfonso Cuarón is a prohibitive 1-30 favorite to win Best Director, “a consolation for ‘Gravity’ not winning Best Picture,” Sheridan explained.
Matthew McConaughey is 1-7 to win Best Actor in a Leading Role (beating out well-liked Leonardo DiCaprio at 5-1 and early favorite Chiwetel Ejiofor at 10:1) and Jared Leto is 1-16 to win Best Actor in a Supporting Role — both for their poignant turns in “Dallas Buyers Club.”
“McConaughey went from romantic comedies to a gritty, physically and emotionally taxing performance. He lost a huge amount of weight for the role, which the voters like,” Sheridan said. “Leto has won every single acting award leading up to the Oscars.”
Cate Blanchett is a 1-50 lead-pipe cinch to win Best Actress in a Lead Role for “Blue Jasmine,” despite possible backlash against the film’s director, Woody Allen. “The vote is based on performance, not someone [else’s] alleged moral misdeeds,” Sheridan said.
The closest race is Best Actress in a Supporting Role, with Lupita Nyong’o (“12 Years a Slave”) at even odds to beat Jennifer Lawrence at 6-5. “Lawrence is very young, won it last year for ‘Silver Linings Playbook’ and will win another Oscar someday,” Sheridan said.
If Sheridan is right, “American Hustle,” “The Wolf of Wall Street,” “Philomena” and “Captain Phillips” will get shut out.